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Across many parts of Southwest Nigeria, early showers have begun to appear, but according to the latest 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), these rains are a false onset and may NOT be sufficient to support planting at this time. Several media analyses and agro‑climate briefings confirm that early rains in states like Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, and Ondo will not be sustained and are likely to be followed by a dry spell before the true onset of the rainy season in April.
Why You Should Not Plant Now
According to NiMet’s updated rainfall outlook:
1. Early rains are misleading (FALSE ONSET)
Rainfall in parts of Lagos, Ogun, Oyo and other southern states is not yet established. These early showers will disappear, causing soil moisture to drop and exposing crops to early‑stage mortality.
2. A dry spell is expected before true onset
Severe dry spells lasting more than 15 days are forecast in parts of Oyo and Ogun between March and May. Planting now may result in:
Seed loss
Wasted fertilizer
Poor germination
Financial loss (especially for women farmers already facing structural barriers)
3. Higher than normal temperatures will worsen heat stress
NiMet forecasts above‑normal temperatures across Nigeria, intensifying heat stress on crops and livestock before rains fully stabilise.
Recommendations for Farmers
1. Wait for Rainfall Establishment
Do not plant until:
Rains are consistent for several days, and
Soil moisture is deep enough to support seed germination and early growth.
This is especially important for maize, rice, vegetables, and legumes. These crops are highly sensitive to early moisture stress.
2. Prepare Your Land Instead of Planting; Use this period to:
Clear fields sustainably
Finish ridging or bed preparation
Apply decomposed manure
Test soil health
Repair irrigation tools where available
Encourage women and youth farmers to participate fully in land‑preparation decision‑making.
3. Adopt Heat- and Dry‑Spell‑Smart Practices
With a high likelihood of heat spikes and dry periods, farmers should begin preparing mitigation systems such as:
Crop Level
Apply mulching to retain soil moisture
Use shade nets in small garden patches
Avoid using high‑moisture seeds that may rot during long dry breaks
Choose drought‑tolerant early varieties when the season finally stabilises.
Livestock Level
Provide shaded areas
Ensure constant hydration
Avoid transporting animals during peak heat hours
NiMet warns of above‑normal temperatures, so heat stress preparedness is crucial.
4. Strengthen Community Knowledge-Sharing
Ensure women farmers and young growers receive timely climate alerts
Hold inclusive, community-based planning meetings
Share advisories in local languages and accessible formats
Encourage joint decision‑making on planting dates, crop selection, and resource allocation
Women are often the most affected by climate shocks due to limited access to land, inputs, and finance. Inclusive communication prevents disproportionate losses.
5. Plan for Moisture Conservation During Mid-Season Dry Spells
NiMet predicts dry spells across several southern states, including Ekiti, Osun, Ondo, and Ogun.
Prepare to use:
Tied ridges
Contour bunds
Staggered planting
Cover crops
These methods protect against crop wilting when rains pause.
Our commitment at EcoVibes Nigeria is that we will continue to:
Disseminate accurate weather and climate information
Support gender-responsive climate adaptation
Train farmers in sustainable practices
Partner with rural women to build resilience and leadership in agriculture
Your safety and productivity matter to us, and we will continue to stand with you as climate patterns shift.
Final Message to Farmers
Do NOT plant now.
Prepare your fields and wait for consistent rainfall.
Manage heat stress risks early.
Share this information within your community.